USDA ERS: Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook November 15, 2024

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook November 15, 2024

U.S. 2024/25 Sugar Stocks-to-Use Ratio Lowered; Mexico’s 2023/24 Balance Sheet Finalized

In the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the 2024/25 sugar
stocks-to-use ratio is reduced from last month by 2.6 percentage points to 11.7 percent on lower
supply and higher use. Supply is down by 274,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.019 million
on lower beginning stocks and domestic production offsetting higher imports. With deliveries for
human consumption up by 50,000 STRV to 12.350 million—in line with the increase in 2023/24—
use is increased by the same magnitude to 12.555 million. Correspondingly, ending stocks are
reduced by 324,000 STRV to 1.464 million.
The U.S. 2023/24 sugar supply and use are updated based on the availability of full fiscal-year
data from the USDA, Farm Service Agency and the USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service. Minor
differences between the WASDE and these sources, due to data unavailability before the WASDE
lockup, will be addressed next month. Ending stocks totaled 2.162 million, 69,000-STRV lower
than last month on higher use offsetting the supply increase. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is
16.9 percent.
Mexico’s 2023/24 balance sheet is finalized. For 2024/25, imports had the biggest change based
on FAS Mexico City Post reporting. With supply up, Mexico’s exports to other destinations are
residually raised to maintain a 2.5-months’ worth of stocks. A cane refiner serving the North
American sugar market recently announced that one of the largest refiners in Mexico acquired a
portion of its voting and equity shares.